SUMMARY 

On July 18, China launched a 5-day military drill in the East China Sea expected to continue through July 23 showcasing capabilities that reinforce the military’s ability to retake Taiwan. The Zhejiang Maritime Safety Administration cautioned merchant and civilian vessels transiting between Zhoushan to Wenzhou along the east coast of Zhejiang Province on July 16 to avoid the area, which is roughly the size of Taiwan.  In mid-December 2017, the Chinese military sent a flurry of ‘encirclement’ patrols around Taiwan. A month later, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry responded to military movements involving China’s first aircraft carrier passing through the Taiwan strait. Historically, Beijing has used large scale military operations to send a message that Taiwan is still very much a part of China. The drills primarily speak to a growing separatist movement in Taiwan that seek to move toward independence, a situation Chinese leadership have vowed to stop at all costs. In conspicuous timing, Taiwan activated 15 new Apache attack helicopters as part of the 601st Brigade based out of Longtan Airbase in Northern Taiwan. It was not clear if this announcement was in direct response to the announced China drills a day earlier. 

FAO GLOBAL ASSESSMENT 

Military maneuvers targeting Taiwan are not new or unique and it is unlikely these exercises signal and immediate prelude to war. However, merchant vessels with pre-planned routes transiting along the coast will have to delay shipments or spend thousands of dollars more in personnel costs, fuel, maintenance, delayed offloading, and port late fees. Geo politically, the Taiwan response is expected to be vocal but not substantive militarily. The cost of combat runs too high economically and politically for both countries, but one can expect to see light posturing from Taiwan, and potentially the United States. 

Related Links 

1. Newsweek – China Trains for Taiwan Invasion 
2. Focus Taiwan – China’s latest military drill aimed at rattling U.S., Japan: expert 
3. Global Times – PLA drill in East China Sea ‘tailored for Taiwan separatists’ 
4. Taiwan News – Taiwan’s defense ministry responds to threat from China’s aircraft carrier 
5. Newsweek – Taiwan Deploys 15 more Helicopters Amid Tensions with China 

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Analyst Bio

Brandon Hughes – Senior Analyst

Brandon Hughes is the founder of FAO Global, a former Senior Regional Analyst-Asia for Planet Risk. He has previously worked with the U.S. Army, the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, and Asia Society. He is a combat veteran and has conducted research on a wide variety of regional conflicts and foreign affairs in countries as diverse as China, Myanmar, Afghanistan, and Kosovo. Brandon holds a L.L.M in International Relations from Tsinghua University, Beijing and a Bachelors in International Business and has studied at Johns Hopkins University, Beijing Language & Culture University, and Rangsit University, Thailand. He has extensive overseas experience focused on international business, international security and U.S.-China relations.

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